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Estimation of 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in a portuguese population
Session:
Posters (Sessão 3 - Écran 3) - Fatores de risco cardiovascular
Speaker:
Jéni Quintal
Congress:
CPC 2023
Topic:
J. Preventive Cardiology
Theme:
28. Risk Factors and Prevention
Subtheme:
28.14 Risk Factors and Prevention - Other
Session Type:
Pósters Electrónicos
FP Number:
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Authors:
Jéni Quintal; António Pinheiro Candjondjo; Quitéria Rato; Elisa Melo Ferreira; Joana Sousa; Mariana José Silva; José Daniel Casas; Rui Coelho; José Maria Farinha; Ana Fátima Esteves; Joana Silva Ferreira; Tatiana Duarte; Sara Gonçalves; Filipe Seixo; Rui Caria
Abstract
<p>Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common noncommunicable disease and actually the leading cause of death globally. Hence, it is important to identify individuals who may benefit from CVD preventive strategies. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has recently updated the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms. Those tools were recalibrated to four groups of countries (low, moderate, high and very high CVD risk) based on national CVD mortality rates published by the WHO, with Portugal being now considered a moderate risk country.<br /> <br /> Purpose: To evaluate the application of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP in a Portuguese population sample.<br /> <br /> Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study, including individuals aged 40-90 years, without known established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes mellitus, Chronic Kidney Disease or Familial Hypercholesterolemia. The sample was recruited at a local cardiovascular screening event in Portugal that took place in May 2022. The 10-year fatal and non-fatal CVD risk was calculated using SCORE2 (for individuals aged < 70 years) and SCORE2-OP (for individuals aged ≥ 70 years) tools. Based on CVD risk category, patients were stratified into 3 categories: low to moderate, high and very high risk according to new SCORE algorithms. Primary outcome was the assessment of 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD with SCORE2 e SCORE2-OP in a local Portuguese population. According to the data distribution, appropriate statistical tests were conducted to compare independent samples. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyze 10-year CVD risk.<br /> <br /> Results: This cohort included 431 individuals. Median age was 71 years (Q1-Q3: 65-75) and 66.8% of individuals were women. Regarding baseline characteristics of the included individuals, 48.1% had hypertension, 38.3% had dyslipidemia, 25.5% were obese and 6.6% were smokers. Based on the SCORE2 model 92 (26.1%) individuals were classified into low to moderate risk, 162 (46.0%) into high risk and 98 (27.8%) into very high-risk category. SCORE2 median was 3.43 % (Q1-Q3: 5.5-8.0 p< 0.01) and SCORE2-OP median was 12.70 % (Q1-Q3: 9.7-12.7). Active smoking was the only independent predictor of 10-years CVD risk both in SCORE2 (RR 3.28, 95% CI: 1.93-4.66, p=0.001) and SCORE2-OP (RR 6.31, 95% CI: 2.67-9.52, p<0.001).<br /> <br /> Conclusions: Most individuals in this sample were stratified into high or very high risk of developing 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. This data is in accordance with the updated risk category of Portugal based on World Health Organization cardiovascular mortality rates. These results not only validate the application of SCORE to the Portuguese setting, but also reinforce how this easily applicable tool can help to identify patients who will benefit from CVD preventive strategies.</p>
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